Autumn 2023 Weather Outlook

Fall weather highlights for every region in Canada

Get ready for a vibrant canvas of colours as Canada’s fall 2023 weather forecast unfolds. From coast to coast to coast, Harrowsmith‘s long-range forecast delves into the anticipated weather patterns, offering insights for leaf-peepers, outdoor enthusiasts, and everyone in between.

Atlantic Provinces 

The autumn season should bring average precipitation and temperatures. Sea temperatures should be a bit lower than in previous years, helping tropical systems lose energy more quickly. Another factor lessening the chances for major tropical systems will be the wind shear in the Atlantic that we expect to see from a strengthening El Niño. This will help break apart developing storms. Overall, Nova Scotia, P.E.I., and Newfoundland should be the wettest locations, while New Brunswick should be a little closer to normal. 


Autumn should start warm and continue warm as we approach winter. October should see a rather warm spell with the potential to break temperature records in the southern part of the province. Precipitation should be slightly below normal. The lack of prolonged cold could delay foliage peak colours by a week or two. The first frost of the season should be delayed by two to three weeks in the southern half of the province. 

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The first half of the season should see slightly above-normal temperatures, followed by much above-normal temperatures in the second half. Drier than normal conditions should be felt overall despite some storms which could drop heavy amounts of rain in early September and late October. 

The Prairies 

We expect a warmer autumn for the prairies, with temperatures potentially much warmer than normal. We also expect conditions to be drier with the storm track north of the region much of the time. Conditions could be favourable for brush fires into early winter. 

British Columbia 

We expect B.C. to experience slightly warmer temperatures compared to normal. The influence of El Niño on B.C. autumn temperatures tends to be relatively subtle, and the overall temperature variations may not be as significant as during winter. Precipitation is expected to be near normal or slightly above normal, especially along the southwestern coast. 

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Yukon and Western Northwest Territories

Expect temperatures to run above normal overall, even though there will be a couple of chilly spells in October and November. Several chances for heavy rain in the Yukon during late autumn will bring precipitation levels slightly above normal. Elsewhere, precipitation should run close to normal. 

Eastern Northwest Territories and Nunavut

Colder than normal conditions should dominate throughout the fall, with precipitation levels slightly above normal levels. It should also be rather stormy as air masses clash as El Niño takes hold. Windy.

Mark Sirois
Mark Sirois

Mark Sirois is a managing partner at Kyndryl by day and a long-range meteorologist whenever he can fit it in his free time. His passion for meteorology started at age 15, and for the last 35 years, he has developed a multifaceted approach to long-range forecasting. His frustrations with the way Canadian mainstream media broadcasts weather information led him to create an alternative option to those in southern Quebec. Since 2007, he has offered severe and long-range forecasts through the Southern Quebec Severe Weather Network on Facebook; but since 2022, he now provides daily, weekly and seasonal forecasts for Quebec as The Weather Whisperer via

Posted on Thursday, September 28th, 2023
Filed under Environment | Featured
Tagged: autumn | Fall | forecast | weather

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